The UK convenience market is forecast to grow from £48.6bn in 2026 to £54.9bn in 2031, according to analysis from IGD.
The research also shows that declining tobacco and vape sales continue to mask stronger performance elsewhere in the channel, with forecast CAGR rising from 2.5% to 3.4% when tobacco and vape are excluded.
IGD also revealed that UK convenience sales fell 1.2% in the first half of 2026. Excluding tobacco and vape, however, the market grew by 0.7%.
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Patrick Mitchell-Fox, insight partner at IGD, said: “H1 2026 represents a historic low point for convenience market performance in recent years. While 11 of 17 categories recorded growth, only five grew by more than 2%, underlining just how difficult meaningful growth has become across much of the channel.”
Meanwhile, as the category share of tobacco and vape has fallen to 15.4% in 2026, alcohol has remained comparatively stable at 15.1%. If these trends continue, IGD forecasts alcohol could overtake tobacco and vape as the channel’s largest category as early as 2027. Such a crossover would reflect a broader shift in the channel’s growth drivers.
