New research indicates that UK food prices are on track to be 50% higher by November 2026 compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021.
The findings from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) suggest that the amount of price growth seen in the nearly 20 years prior to the crisis would be achieved in just over 5 years, which is almost quadruple the pace of food inflation.
The findings highlight how a combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets have compounded pressures on the food system, with households facing sustained increases at the checkout.
Read more: Foodservice outlet menu prices increasing by 2.5%
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years. Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russian invaded Ukraine.”
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food foundation, said: “Food prices rising this high, and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.”
